Why Ragans could challenge Skubal for Cy Young Award

\n\n”,”providerName”:”Twitter”,”providerUrl”:”https://twitter.com”,”thumbnail_url”:null,”type”:”oembed”,”width”:550,”contentType”:”rich”},{“__typename”:”Markdown”,”content”:”Ragans’ 2024 was good by any standard, and his 2025 was good by advanced metrics. His spring has looked like that, too, and there’s no indication of any health issues this time. So there should be absolutely nothing standing in the way of Ragans and —”,”type”:”text”},{“__typename”:”Markdown”,”content”:”**Wait, why was the ERA so high?**\n\n… right, OK. We’re talking about what’s going to predict the future, but when the Cardinals tagged him for five runs in three innings last June, you don’t get to hand-wave that away with what might have happened. (Though the Royals did win that game, 7-5.) So what caused Ragans to let those runs in?\n\nAs you’d expect: Lots of things. That Cardinals game was his last one before going on the shelf, and his fastball velocity was noticeably down; it’s easy to think he was already diminished at that point. In such a small sample, poor defense could really get you, and indeed it did; in 2024, the Royals defense saved +9 runs with Ragans on the mound, but in 2025, they cost him [minus-2](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/fielding-run-value?gameType=Regular&groupBy=year&seasonStart=2024&seasonEnd=2025&team=118&type=pitcher&position=0&minInnings=q&minResults=1&sortColumn=name&sortDirection=asc). (On a completely related note, Ragans’ Batting Average on Balls In Play shot up from .290 to .354, the [second-largest](https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/season-stat-grid?position=P&seasonStart=2024&seasonEnd=2025&stat=BABIP&pastMinPt=150&curMinPt=50&mode=combo) change of any pitcher with as many innings.)\n\nRun prevention is rarely only about the pitcher. But he remains a main character. When Ragans did allow contact, he did get hit somewhat harder, seeing his barrel rate fall from the 79th percentile to the 28th percentile, which is what happens when your hard-hit rate goes up and your ground-ball rate drops. As his arm angle dropped, his fastball cut more and his slider slowed and changed shape, becoming, for lack of a better term, *droopier*.\n\nAll of which were known issues for Ragans headed into this season.\n\n“It got super depthy and was almost a baby curveball,” Ragans told MLB.com’s Anne Rogers earlier this spring. “… It was bigger and inconsistent. And just depthy, just straight down. I got some chase with it, some swing-and-miss with it, but it’s more so about putting it in the zone. I could never throw an 0-0 slider last year. In the grand scheme of things, I didn’t do well with that.”\n\nAfter spending a winter working on the grip, Ragans seems to think the slider is back. The metrics agree it’s closer to what it was before 2025. Again: which is the outlier here?”,”type”:”text”},{“__typename”:”Markdown”,”content”:”* **2026, ST:** 86.2 MPH, 37.6 inches drop\n* ***2025, reg:*** *84.7 MPH, 40.3 inches drop*\n* **2024, reg:** 86.0 MPH, 36.3 inches drop”,”type”:”text”},{“__typename”:”Markdown”,”content”:”It’s not even so much about “better,” because an argument could be made for either. It’s about “looking like it did in 2024.”\n\n“I feel as good as I’ve ever felt,” Ragans said at the beginning of spring. “It just felt good to be out there.”\n\nThe Royals will need him to be his old self. For all the reasonable talk about what young Royals slugger Jac Caglianone can do in 2026, it’s just as important for Kansas City – moreso, perhaps – what Ragans can do. Having starting pitching depth is fantastic. Having an ace is pretty nice, too.”,”type”:”text”}],”relativeSiteUrl”:”/news/cole-ragans-al-cy-young-candidate-2026″,”contentType”:”news”,”subHeadline”:”Don’t let the 4.67 ERA last season fool you”,”summary”:”Can you call it “a breakout” if the player in question already finished fourth in the AL Cy Young Award voting just two seasons ago? No, probably not.\nCan you call it “a comeback” if every advanced metric said that the same pitcher, last season, was then even better –”,”tagline({\”formatString\”:\”none\”})”:null,”tags”:[{“__typename”:”InternalTag”,”slug”:”storytype-article”,”title”:”Article”,”type”:”article”},{“__typename”:”ContributorTag”,”slug”:”mike-petriello”,”title”:”Mike Petriello”,”type”:”contributor”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”apple-news”,”title”:”Apple News”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”PersonTag”,”slug”:”playerid-666142″,”title”:”Cole Ragans”,”person”:{“__ref”:”Person:666142″},”type”:”player”},{“__typename”:”TeamTag”,”slug”:”teamid-118″,”type”:”team”,”title”:”Kansas City 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